China Cotton Network special news: According to the survey results released by the National Cotton Council (NCC) on February 18, the United States intends to plant cotton in 2024, 9.8 million acres, a decrease of 3.7%.

Specifically, in 2024, the area of upland cotton planting in the United States will be 9.6 million acres, a decrease of 4.3%, and the area of long-staple cotton will be 202,000 acres, an increase of 37.7%.

Jodi Campiche, vice president and economic and policy analyst at the NCC, said acreage is just one of many factors that determine the supply of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather and the agricultural economic environment will have a major impact on yields.

Using an average yield of nearly a decade and making appropriate adjustments for several states based on current soil moisture, the NCC projects 8.1 million acres of U.S. cotton harvested in 2024 with a yield of 17.9 percent. Using the average yield of the past five years in the southeast and central South of the United States and the average yield of the past ten years in the southwest and western regions of the United States, it is estimated that the U.S. cotton production in 2024 will be 14.6 million bales, including 14 million bales of upland cotton and 538,000 bales of long staple cotton.

The NCC survey covered 17 cotton-producing states from mid-December 2023 to mid-January 2024 and asked about acreage planted for cotton and other crops in 2023 and intended acreage planted in 2024.

Campiche says historically, U.S. farmers have responded to relative prices when making planting decisions. Compared to average futures prices in the first quarter of 2023, all commodity prices were lower during the survey period, but cotton experienced the smallest decline. As a result, the price ratio of cotton to corn and soybeans is higher than in 2023. Based on historical price relationships, this usually means an increase in cotton acreage. However, production costs are higher in 2024 at current prices, so 2024/25 could work against this relationship.

The NCC said the expected planting area is based on market conditions at the time of the survey and actual planting is subject to changes in market conditions and weather. Producers will continue to monitor changes in commodity prices and input costs before finalizing their acreage decisions for 2024. Since the end of the survey, cotton prices have risen, while corn and soybean prices have fallen further. A change in the price ratio could result in cotton acreage higher than reported in the NCC survey.

Source: China Cotton Information Center